Spring 2026 continues its relentless pace. After a chaotic Easter weekend that brought tornadoes, flash flooding, and late-season snow across the central U.S., the atmosphere is barely pausing before loading up again. Texas is the focal point today, and the week ahead is shaping up to be one of the most sustained and organized severe weather stretches of the season.
Today: Texas Under the Gun
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing across central and south Texas through the morning, and the setup is about to intensify. This afternoon, additional scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to redevelop across Central Texas and continue into the evening, fueled by a strong inflow of Gulf moisture — integrated vapor transport exceeding 500 kg/m/s is being directed straight into the Southern Plains.
The environment is primed. MLCAPE values of 1,000–2,000 J/kg are building ahead of the dryline, and vertical wind shear and low-level helicity are sufficient to support supercell structures. The NWS Fort Worth office is highlighting large hail, damaging winds, a couple of tornadoes, and flash flooding as all possible with today's storms.
The WPC has issued a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for central Texas, with the Brazos Valley and surrounding areas carrying the highest concern. A strong low-level jet overnight will sustain storm activity well into Sunday evening. The greatest severe risk should end before midnight, but rainfall-driven flash flood concerns may linger later as totals accumulate.
Dallas, San Antonio, San Angelo, Oklahoma City, and Wichita all sit within the Day 1 severe risk corridor. The Houston/Galveston area is also under a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall, with a Marginal Risk for severe weather extending across southeast Texas.
The Week Ahead: An Amplified, Active Pattern
Today's storms are just the opening act. WPC forecasters are using unusually direct language in the extended forecast discussion, headlining it: "Multiple rounds of heavy rain and severe weather across the Plains next week."
The synoptic setup driving this is a textbook spring pattern. An amplified upper ridge is anchored east of the Mississippi River, while a broad trough is entrenched over the western U.S. Multiple shortwave impulses will eject eastward across the Plains each day, repeatedly intersecting a warm, unstable airmass loaded with Gulf moisture. The critical factor is that this trough is not progressing quickly eastward — it's nearly stationary — which means the same corridor will get hit again and again rather than seeing the pattern clear out after one event.
Here's how the week breaks down:
Monday, April 13: The storm system strengthens and accelerates northward, expanding the threat from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are possible from north Texas northward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Flood watches remain in effect across parts of Michigan's Upper Peninsula, far northern Lower Michigan, and Wisconsin from earlier rainfall.
Tuesday, April 14: A shortwave upper trough ejects across the Plains as a surface low deepens over the central Plains and lifts northeast toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Thunderstorm development becomes more widespread given stronger large-scale ascent, and a more robust low-level jet provides better organization. Large to very large hail — some stones 2 to 2.5 inches or larger — is possible across portions of the Iowa/Minnesota border region. The SPC has been flagging this as a potentially more significant severe day at extended range.
Tuesday through Thursday: WPC is placing Marginal Risk areas across portions of the Midwest and western Great Lakes for excessive rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday, as mesoscale convective systems develop overnight. The slow-moving nature of the pattern means some areas could receive rainfall on consecutive days, raising cumulative flash flood concerns even where individual rainfall rates may not be extreme.
Summer heat arrives early: In a remarkable contrast to the recent cold blast, above-average temperatures are spreading rapidly across the central and eastern U.S. this week. Highs well into the 80s and lower 90s are expected across the eastern half of the country by midweek — temperatures more typical of late May than mid-April. This anomalous warmth is itself a driver of the severe weather setup, deepening the instability that makes storms more explosive once they fire.
Flash Flooding: The Compounding Threat
One detail that deserves special attention this week is the cumulative flash flood risk. Parts of the southern Plains — including areas of Texas and Oklahoma — have been running a drought deficit, and while the first round of rain is desperately needed, repeated heavy rainfall over the same drought-hardened soils can actually increase flash flood risk in a counterintuitive way. Dry, compact soils initially resist infiltration, causing rapid runoff. Add a second or third storm system tracking over the same footprint and water has nowhere to go quickly.
The WPC has noted explicitly that areas experiencing excessive rainfall on one day may face renewed threats in subsequent days as the trough remains nearly stationary. Burn scars, poor drainage areas, low-water crossings, and small stream basins across the southern Plains should be monitored closely through the week.
Other Hazards
Sierra Nevada snow: A Pacific frontal system is delivering significant mountain snow to the Sierra Nevada this weekend. WPC probabilities show 50–80% chances of 6 or more inches across a large portion of the range, with some peaks favored for 12 inches or more. Snow levels are dropping to around 6,000 feet, making mountain pass travel increasingly dangerous through Sunday.
Fire weather: Critical fire weather concerns remain in place for portions of the central and southern High Plains and parts of the Midwest, where gusty winds and low relative humidity are creating dangerous wildfire spread conditions outside of the areas seeing rainfall.
Stay Prepared All Week
This isn't a one-day event to watch and move on from. The pattern is persistent, the moisture is deep, and the instability is building day by day. If you're in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, or the Midwest — know your shelter, keep your devices charged, and have multiple ways to receive warnings.
Track all active NWS warnings, watches, and advisories in real time at nwsalerts.net — including live storm reports from IEM's GeoJSON feed, SPC convective outlook overlays for Days 1 through 3, and the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook through Day 5, all on one map.