Spring severe weather season is in full swing across the central United States. A multi-day storm pattern is producing hazards ranging from tornadoes and large hail to flash flooding and mountain snow — and the pattern isn't done yet heading into Easter weekend.
What's Happening Today
A surface low pressure system is tracking from northeast Kansas toward southern Iowa this afternoon, then continuing northeast into southern Wisconsin overnight. The warm sector ahead of it is charged — boundary-layer dewpoints surging into the 60s and MLCAPE values of 1,500–2,000 J/kg are supporting an environment capable of supercells.
The SPC has highlighted two distinct threat zones for today:
Northern zone (N. Missouri → S. Iowa): Any sustained supercells forming east-southeast of the cyclone track carry a conditional tornado threat and the potential for isolated very large hail — 2 inches in diameter or greater. Vertical shear is sufficient to support rotating storms, though convective mode evolution adds some uncertainty.
Southern zone (Ozarks → Oklahoma → North Texas): Storms are expected to organize into an extensive line by this evening. The primary threats here shift toward large hail and damaging winds rather than tornadoes, as storm motion and upscale growth along the cold front limit discrete supercell potential.
The WPC is running a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Missouri Valley through tonight. Precipitable water values are running 2–4 standard deviations above normal — an anomalously deep moisture plume. Flash flooding is a serious concern wherever heavy rain trains over ground that is already saturated from earlier this week.
River Flood Warnings are already posted across parts of Kenosha and Racine Counties in Wisconsin, with some valid through Tuesday.
Yesterday's Storm Reports
Thursday's storms were no warm-up act. Multiple tornado warnings were issued across Iowa, including warnings for central Wapello County near Ottumwa and southeastern Keokuk and Washington Counties — with reports of roofs ripped off buildings in Downey, Iowa. Tornado warnings also fired in southeastern Texas near the Burleson and Washington County line south of Brenham.
Into the Weekend
The pattern continues to reload through Easter. On Saturday, a trailing cold front will push southeast, drawing a 1,300-mile-long swath of severe storms from the Mid-Mississippi Valley south into Texas. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will remain possible — particularly in the evening hours after dark, when visibility is reduced and lead time is critical.
By Easter Sunday, the front will approach the I-95 corridor. While storms along the East Coast are expected to remain below severe limits for most areas, localized gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours are possible from New York City through Washington, D.C. Flash flood concerns also persist for the Texas Hill Country, where recurring rounds of rain may push streams and rivers rapidly higher.
Other Hazards Worth Watching
Northern Rockies snow: A cold front draped across the northern Rockies is producing significant mountain snowfall through Tuesday. The Tetons, Wind Rivers, Absaroka, and Bighorn ranges have 50–80% probabilities for snowfall totals exceeding 4 inches. Not unusual for early April in the high country, but worth monitoring for travel.
Fire weather: Anomalously warm and dry conditions persist across the Intermountain West and High Plains. Critical fire weather concerns remain in place — one hazard that often flies under the radar while severe weather dominates the headlines.
Stay Informed
This is an active and evolving pattern. Monitor your local NWS alerts and track all active warnings, watches, and advisories in real time at nwsalerts.net — including the new NASA FIRMS active fires layer and NHC tropical tracks added in Beta 1.5.1 today.