Spring is fully awake today.

A strengthening surface low is tracking northeast across the Plains, and the warm sector ahead of it is primed — dewpoints surging into the 60s, CAPE values of 1,500-2,000 J/kg, and enough wind shear for supercells. In the warm sector east of the low, any storm that gets organized carries a conditional tornado threat and the chance for very large hail.

Farther south and west, storms will likely go linear from the Ozarks back into Oklahoma and north Texas — less tornado concern there, but widespread hail and damaging wind are on the table Friday afternoon into tonight.

And on top of the severe threat, WPC is running a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall from the Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Missouri Valley. Moisture is stacked — precipitable water running 2 to 4 standard deviations above normal. Flash flooding will be a serious concern wherever heavy rain trains over already-wet ground.